Geographers Secure Grant to Increase Famine Forecast Quality

By GAIL GALLESSICH

In sub-Saharan Africa and Central America too little or too much rainfall can cause famine. Scientists at UCSB and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are working with researchers in these countries to monitor, anticipate, and mitigate the impact of flooding and drought.

Joel Michael­sen, professor of geography and a climatology specialist, and his team have this year received $750,000 to increase their participation in a federal early warning program. The Famine Early Warning System Network, or FEWS NET, was originally developed in 1985 in response to massive starvation in Ethiopia. It pulls together data to predict shortages or excesses of rainfall.

It is primarily funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, with partners in NASA, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), Chemonics International, and USGS. USGS' Earth Resources Observation Systems Data Center works closely with the Geography Department on FEWS NET.

Michaelsen's team includes scientists in Washington, D.C., and several African and Central American countries. "Our objective is to try to locate and foresee areas where there will be food shortages," he said. "We're working on ways to track the rainy season as it develops. We are looking to see if there will be a shortfall or excess. Too little or too much are both problems."

He explained that there is a baseline of climate data for sub-Saharan Africa gleaned from 35 years of information that allows researchers to decide what is average.

Michaelsen and his team get up-to-date data on precipitation from NOAA and compare it to the historical data to see if rainfall is low or high. Dry conditions can lead to famine while wet conditions can lead to outbreaks of malaria and Rift Valley fever, which can take thousands of lives during wet years.

Researchers expect to improve the several-month advance forecasts. That data will then be cast in ways that are helpful to decision-makers in government and those guiding relief agencies.

Michaelsen said that UCSB researchers are working with field scientists to develop the computer tools that can be used in their own countries to track rainfall and project crop yields.

According to a United Nations world water development report, the average supply of water per person worldwide is expected to drop by a third in the next 20 years, with between 2 to 7 billion people facing water shortages by 2050.

The Geography Dept. has been involved in FEWS NET since 1997. Staff from USGS have studied at UCSB, and UCSB graduates have joined the USGS team. Now, the university will take on a larger and more direct scientific role in FEWS NET activities—statistical climatology, hydrology, GIS, remote sensing, and geostatistics.

A few of the objectives of the UCSB FEWS NET team are:

Michaelsen said, "By extending our basic understanding of the factors controlling hydroclimatic extremes, building intellectual tools to anticipate, mitigate, and alleviate these extremes, and shortening the lag time between research and development and critical decisions, we will help FEWS NET countries cope with the vagaries of time-varying water supply and demand."